Ohio still showing support for Obama

Mitt Romney campaigns in Ohio

There hasn’t been any movement in the Electoral College since our last update on Tuesday. However, there is new polling out of Ohio showing that Mitt Romney has his work cut out for him in this must-win state.

While Romney’s campaign has touted his momentum in the race, largely spurred by the debates, new polls that have come out of the Buckeye State in the last couple are ominous for Republicans with only 12 days left before the election.

Here is a brief look at the three polls that have come out of Ohio since the beginning of the week. This obviously excludes anything that may hit later today. Since people often wonder about poll demographics, I’ve included the D/R/I split from each poll. For reference purposes, 2008 exit polls showed 39/31/30 split in Ohio (it was 36/40/24 in 2004, when Bush won the state). Take whatever you see below and draw your own opinion:

Firm Dates
Obama Romney Other Not sure D/R/I Split +/-
Rasmussen 10/23 48% 48% 3% 4% 39/38/23 Tie
Time 10/22-23 49% 44% 1%
37/28/29 Obama +5
SurveyUSA 10/18-21 47% 44% 2% 6% 39/33/25 Obama +3

This has been said before here and elsewhere, but it bears repeating again: There is simply no realistic path to victory for Romney without Ohio. There is no getting around that. Sure, Romney could pickup Pennsylvania or a combination of Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. He could also win by taking Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. But does anyone believe that these are likely scenarios?

No Republican has ever won without Ohio and this state has picked the winner in the last 12 presidential elections. History is not on Romney’s side here. He has 12 days to convince Ohio voters who haven’t yet cast a ballot to vote for him.

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