With exactly two weeks until election day, we’re keeping track of any change in the Electoral College. With that, Monday brought some good and bad news for Mitt Romney.
Let’s start with the bad news. While Republicans were excited to see a polling out of New Hamsphire showing Romney ahead, a new poll from University of New Hampshire (UNH) shows President Barack Obama with a 9-point lead, shift the state back into his column, according to Real Clear Politics. It should be noted that this poll seems to be, well, out there when compared to everything else coming out of New Hampshire.
In fact, UNH polls, in the past done in coordination with WMUR*, have generally shown a big lead for Obama, while Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling have both had either Romney or Obama up by 1-point in the last week. Suffolk University had the race for the state’s four electoral votes in a tie last week. Needless to say, UNH is an outlier at this point. But for sake of argument, let’s throw New Hampshire back to Obama for a moment.
The good news for Romney is that a new Suffolk University poll out of Ohio shows a dead-heat for the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes. Public Policy Policy also released a survey out of the state over the weekend showing Obama up by 1-point. Keep in mind that no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio, so the importance of this state cannot be overstated. There simply is no path to victory for Romney without victory here.
According to Suffolk, Obama maintains an edge significant edge in early voting, leading Romney, 54/41.However, Romney leads among voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots, 48/45. This poll brings Obama’s RCP average lead in Ohio down to 1.9 points.
Some other good news for Romney is that it appears that GOP ground game in swing states has demonstrably improved. Over at WaPo’s The Fix, Aaron Blake notes that Romney is “closing the gap” with with early voters, which is an area where McCain lagged in 2008. Of course, none of this is to say that Romney will be successful in the end. Two weeks is an eternity in electoral politics; anything can and will happen.
With New Hampshire going back to Obama, at least for now, here is an updated look at the Electoral College as of this morning:
*an earlier version of this post referred to the last survey out of New Hampshire being a “WMUR/UNH poll.” WMUR did not participate in this survey. The post has been update to reflect that.