Independents in swing states key to a potential Romney win

This morning we ran through the current electoral vote count and what states were currently in play for both candidates. Some may be wondering what factors are driving the race right as Mitt Romney looks to be making substantial gains in swing states. Perhaps the most important voting bloc helping Romney in these important states is independents, as Christian Heinze notes over at The Hill:

Below, I’ve listed polls showing where the race is with indies, currently (based on polls where pollsters have made partisan breakdowns available).

a. Colorado = Obama won by 10% with indies in 2008.

Most recent polls: Romney +4%, Obama +1%, Romney +4%

b. Florida = Obama won by 9% with indies in 2008.

Most recent polls: Romney +3%, Romney +13%, Romney +4%

c. Iowa = Obama won indies by 15% in 2008.

Most recent polls: Romney +4%, Obama +7%.

d. Nevada = Obama won indies by 13% in 2008.

Most recent polls: Romney +18%, Romney +8%, Obama +5%.

e. New Hampshire = Obama won indies by 20% in 2008.

Most recent polls: Romney +3%,  Obama +6%.

f. North Carolina = Obama lost by 21% with indies in 2008.

Most recent polls: Romney +25%.

g. Ohio = Obama won indies by 8% in 2008.

Most recent polls: Romney +8%, Romney +20%, Obama +4%.

h. Virginia = Obama won indies by 1% in 2008.

Most recent polls: Romney +12%, Obama +2%.

i. Wisconsin = Obama won indies by 20% in 2008.

Most recent poll: Romney +2%.

OVERALL: As you can see, Romney is doing better with independents in nearly every swing states; whereas, Obama won indies in every swing state in 2008.

So that’s very good news for Romney.

It’s good news, but as Heinze explains, it doesn’t necessarily mean Romney is going to take a particular swing state just because he’s carrying independent voters. It is, however, a sign that he will run strong in a given state.


The views and opinions expressed by individual authors are not necessarily those of other authors, advertisers, developers or editors at United Liberty.