Electoral Vote: Romney making gains in swing states thanks to debate

Romney

It’s been a while since we’ve looked at the Electoral College, which is what really matters in the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Many Republicans keep pointing to national polls showing Romney either gaining on or leading Obama. This may be an important sign, but it’s very important to remember that the popular vote means nothing when looking at the presidential race.

Romney’s strong debate performance on Wednesday has given a boost to his mistake-ridden campaign, but as of now, the presidential race really boils down to four states — Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia — representing 69 electoral votes.

According to Real Clear Politics averages, Romney is tied with Obama in Colorado and Florida and less that 1-point down in Virginia. However, Romney still trails by 3 points in Ohio. Say what you want about other swing states, but Romney has to run the table in the four states to win next month.

Iowa may still be viewed as a swing state by some, but the early voting numbers have to be discouraging to Romney’s campaign. North Carolina has been tetering, but currently stands in favor of Romney, though not by much.

Here is a look at the Electoral College right now. Please note that I’ve given Obama the edge in Colorado and Virginia just based on the fact that he’s led Romney more often than not (click on the map to enlarge):

Electoral Vote for 10/8/12

If Romney takes those four states, then he takes the Electoral College 275-263. But in order to do so, Romney has to run a mistake-free campaign and continue to perform well in debates. Obama is going to be gunning for him, especially now that he is now vulernable on foreign policy, thanks to Benghazi-gate.


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