Electoral Vote: Obama picks up steam, despite bad job numbers
Just days after the end of the Democratic National Convention, it looks like President Barack Obama has managed to pick up a few points in national polling, which skews the view of the race because it’s a head-to-head match-up against Mitt Romney. With that said, however, there hasn’t been any real movement in the electoral vote count compared to our last few looks at the race.
Romney’s campaign is urging Republicans not to get too worked up about recent polling, but an internal memo shows that they are in a bit of a panic over the last numbers. President Obama has his own problems to worry about as a new poll out of New Mexico shows Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s nominee, getting some support from Democrats, putting Romney within five points. Johnson, who served two terms as Governor of New Mexico, has also managed to pull support from Obama in Colorado.
As I explained in a recent write-up on Johnson’s campaign for Liberty Unbound, Johnson’s campaign will be focusing its efforts in many of the western toss-up states, including the two already mentioned as well as North Carolina and Virginia. So while he may hurt Obama in a couple of states, Johnson may well cause Romney equal damage. But an important note to keep in mind is that third-party campaigns tend to see their numbers shrink the closer we get to an election. While there is talk of Johnson serving as a spoiler, he may, like other third party candidacies before him, see his numbers drop off.
Republicans are starting to get nervous about Romney’s campaign. With yet another dismal jobs report, they feel as though their nominee should be turning this election into a landslide victory, but the reverse is true, as you can see above, based on polling averages in swing states provided by Real Clear Politics.
Erick Erickson, editor of RedState, is trying to get conservatives to calm down, explaining, “Sometimes the trends are just working against the candidate. Let the economic numbers sink in for the next week and then poll again.” Erickson adds, “Romney and the RNC have a huge pile of money they are only now beginning to spend. Accept the lay of the land, folks. Just don’t panic about it.
Maybe don’t panic, but if you’re a Romney supporter, you have to be concerned.