Electoral Vote: Obama still up in crucial states, Romney closing in
While the focus of just about everyone has been on Todd Akin, the Missouri Republican running for United States Senate who made some ignorant comments about rape and abortion, there is some good news for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. At the Washington Post, Aaron Blake notes that the Republican ticket has made some small gains in all important battleground states against President Barack Obama:
[Yesterday’s] trio of swing state polls from Quinnipiac University, CBS News and the New York Times are the latest to show a little movement toward Romney.
Here’s a recap:
- Wisconsin: Romney trailed by three points in a Marquette University poll released Wednesday and led in two automated polls conducted last week — his first lead in the state since mid-June. And the new Quinnipiac poll shows him reducing a six-point deficit from earlier this month down to two points in his new running mate’s home state.
- Colorado: A Quinnipiac poll earlier this month showed Romney registering his first lead in the state.
- Nevada: A new automated SurveyUSA poll showed Romney trailing by two, which is tied for his smallest deficit in any poll.
- Ohio: An automated Purple Strategies poll last week was the first since May to show Romney leading. (Though today’s Q poll shows Obama’s six-point lead remains intact).
- Virginia: The Purple Poll was the first poll since April to show Romney leading.
- Pennsylvania: Franklin and Marshall College, which showed Romney down by 12 points in early June, last week showed him closing to within five points in this blue-leaning state.
Remember: these are the states that will decide the presidency. National polls are fun/important and worth keeping an eye on, but as November approaches, the battle in this handful of states is what really matters.
With Wisconsin and Iowa looking competitive, there is certainly good news for Romney. But he’ll still needs Ohio, where Obama has picked up some ground, depending on what polls you’re looking at. Real Clear Politics shows that Obama has picked up two points in the Buckeye State based on his polling average. Romney also needs Florida, where he has done well this month, and Virginia, where Obama has taken three of the four polls conducted in August.
Even if he were to pull off wins in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, Romney would still be six votes shy of winning the electoral college. However, a win in Iowa or Wisconsin would put Romney in the White House.
But for now, not much has changed. Obama still wins the electoral vote easily, just as he did last week. Here is the latest look at the Electoral College (keep in mind that Maine and Nebraska split their vote based on the “congressional district method,” so those states could add a vote or two on either side):