Promising poll numbers for Romney-Ryan

It’s still far too early in the game to take polls seriously, though it’s hard to ignore them either. Polls really matter around 60 days away from an election. But given how Mitt Romney’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) for his running mate was supposed to be a political loser from the word “go,” polls are showing that he has received a bit of a bounce.

While Gallup may not show a bounce for Romney in its national tracking poll, other polls aren’t backing that up. Via Hot Air comes numbers from Ohio and Virginia, two very crucial states in the upcoming presidential election, showing good news for Romney. The numbers, however, also show positives for Obama in Colorado and Florida:

Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%. Romney also gained ground in Virginia – today, he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by 2 points in July.

However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama-Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in July…

Romney’s personal image appears to have improved following the announcement: 45% favorable, 48% unfavorable. While still net unfavorable, this represents a substantial improvement from July, when he was net -8. For the first time in the PurplePoll we tested Obama’s favorability (we have been testing job performance), and we found him to have a very similar rating as Romney: 47% favorable, 49% unfavorable.

What’s more, two separate polls are now showing Wisconsin in play. Rasmussen shows Romney leading Obama, 48/47 — within the margin of error. And a new CNN poll shows Obama’s lead down to 49/45 — just outside of the margin of error, prompting many political observers to move the state to a “toss up.” The CNN poll also shows Romney leading Obama among independents and Ryan’s favorability at +18.

While these are good numbers for Romney and Ryan, there is still bad news. With the current economic recovery being the weakest since World War II, President Obama is still doing horribly in polls on the economy (30/64), budget deficit (36/60), and job creation (37/58). In reality, this election shouldn’t even be close. But based on the polling averages from Real Clear Politics, this is how the election would turn out today:

Electoral Map -- August 17, 2012

It would be unwise to get hung up on polls so far away from an election. We still have a long way to go and a lot could happen between now and November. But as of now, it’s a still a landslide win for Obama, despite the economy being so terrible. Romney and Ryan have a lot to do to convince voters that they can do better than Obama.


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