Like most political junkies, I’ve been watching polling data in the presidential campaign like a hawk for a year or more. As Donald Trump and Ben Carson took the lead this summer, my enjoyment of the process began to erode. The one thing keeping me from utter despair is the Washington Post’s Twitter account @PastFrontrunner.
It posts every day where polls measured the national and state presidential primary campaigns in 2004, 2008, and 2012. As the saying goes, it’s still early, and that kind of data can put into perspective just how early it is. But we’re just over 2 months away from Iowa and New Hampshire voting, and things haven’t changed much.
However, on the national polls, @PastFrontrunner suggests they’re still way off. Trump currently leads the RealClearPolitics average, Carson is within the margin of error to tie, and Rubio and Cruz are coming up the rear. So where were we in past cycles nationally?
At this point in — 2004: Dean/Clark tied. 2008 (D): H. Clinton +21.7 (R): Giuliani +13.6 2012: Romney +0.4 https://t.co/8pTnsrf0Ds
— Past Frontrunners (@pastfrontrunner) November 18, 2015